Insights

Commentary, insights and analysis from Cahaba Wealth Management

Tag Archives: Wealth Management

Market Updates: Tariff Edition

4/2025

Well that was a week…

By now, we assume all Cahaba Wealth clients know that we do not react to short-term movements in the stock market. As we’ve said time and again, market volatility is a constant that allows stocks to generate higher returns than safer investments like cash and bonds. Successful long-term investment is difficult because it requires discipline. Short-term pullbacks are frequently accompanied by narratives that only serve to reinforce the accompanied anxiety. Telling yourself to remain calm and not react during these periods is what separates the opportunities from setbacks.

We were not surprised that President Trump announced tariffs on Wednesday. What was a surprise was the breadth of the sweeping tariffs. This subsequently caused panic and the resulting selloff in stocks. At the close of Friday’s trading, the S&P 500 was down nearly 10% in the last two days, and the S&P 600 (US small company stocks) lost almost 12% in that span. Selling has been indiscriminate and has spread to stocks around the world. We are not ones to react with panic to this kind of movement, but we certainly feel the need to comment on this climate.

As many of our long-term clients know, we have lived through several bizarre scenarios over the past 30 years. Between the 2000-2002 dot.com bubble bursting, the financial crisis of 2008-2009, Covid, and the bond bear market of 2022, it’s been a whirlwind. During these phases, we have used financial planning and cash flow projections to help our clients navigate these various challenges. In most cases, they continue to thrive and achieve financial goals. Even with those specific market downturns, portfolios continue to be positive over that timeframe, and investing remains the best option to outstrip inflation and grow assets. That perspective hasn’t changed with the recent announcements.

Perhaps one positive of this week is the return of bonds to the “safety” trade. US bonds are up roughly 1% this week, over 3.5% year to date, and are providing the cushion that a balanced portfolio should hope for during stock downturns. Diversification works! With the 10-Year Treasury at or below 4%, we may also see a decrease in Federal interest payments and the possibility to refinance recent mortgages.

The stated goal of the tariff strategy is to bring more balance to the global trade landscape and improve US national security. Both goals are logical and appear to be in the best long-term interest of the United States. However, achieving these goals is complicated. Onshoring manufacturing and negotiating reciprocal trade agreements does not happen overnight. In addition, the near-term impact of tariffs is perceived by economists as an immediate tax. The desire to have the United States economy increase the percentage of GDP generated through manufacturing is achievable but will need to be navigated carefully to avoid major economic disruption.

The unpredictable nature of how the tariff strategy was announced is causing the markets the most consternation. One thing that markets hate is uncertainty. Is The President simply using this as a negotiating tactic with each country to get a better deal? How long will these tariffs be in place? Will the tariffs end up either receding or going away altogether? We currently don’t know the answer to any of these questions. What we do know is that once clarity returns, stocks will rejoice.

We hold our convictions that planning and long-term views of cash flow allow clients to weather any storm. Your asset allocation is designed for this very situation. Where possible, we will explore opportunities to use this downturn to our clients’ long-term advantage. If you feel more anxiety and concern about your portfolio than you normally might, it may be a sign that your risk tolerance is not in line with your asset allocation. Please reach out if you would like to discuss in greater detail. In the meantime, we are confident that this pullback will join the previous selloffs as a long-term buying opportunity.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

Cahaba Wealth Management is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Cahaba Wealth Management is not engaged in the practice of law or accounting. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Content should not be construed as personalized investment advice. The opinions in this materials are for general information, and not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for an individual. Content should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor.

Navigating Tariff Uncertainty: Staying the Course

3/2025

By Stetson Ponder

Recent US tariff actions targeting China, Mexico and Canada have heightened market volatility and have raised many concerns regarding Cahaba Wealth Management’s positioning given this environment moving forward. While these geopolitical developments demand attention and analysis, our investment philosophy remains anchored in long-term outlooks, rather than short-term policy shifts. Here’s why:

The uncertainty regarding implementation of these tariffs leaves analysts and economists unsure what to expect of long-term effects. Even in stable conditions, tariffs are hard to predict because they affect many interconnected aspects of the economy. They can raise prices for consumers, force businesses to change how they get their supplies, and lead other countries to respond with their own tariffs. These effects make it challenging to accurately model the impact of tariffs.

It is hard enough to predict market movement without tariffs, harder still with tariffs being implemented in a slow and methodical approach. Tariffs announced on a Friday and implemented on the following Monday leave investors in a nearly impossible situation. To attempt to predict how to best position any given portfolio in today’s market climate would be metaphorically throwing a dart at a spinning dart board while blindfolded and attempting to hit double twenty.

The motive for these tariff implementations remains complex. The rising speculation is that they are being used as transactional bargaining chips, rather than long term economic strategy. We have already seen Mexico’s 25% tariffs be delayed for a month after President Sheinbaum of Mexico agreed to allocate resources to the continued effort to secure the US’s southern border with its neighbor. Canada’s 25% vehicle import tariff was recently delayed one more month after President Trump spoke with prominent US automakers. What could be viewed as permanent economic shift one day could result in reversal of government policy the next.

This has been the case throughout recent history. Consider:

Research shows that 68% of modern U.S. tariffs are repealed/modified within 24 months, according to Brookings data.
Modern tariffs average 137 days before amendment/repeal.
Since inception, 65% of historical S&P 500 selloffs linked to tariff news are reversed within 3 months as policies shifted (Market Insider, 2025).

Data suggests that we will not see a long-term impact from these tariff negotiations on our domestic markets. While tariff discussions will continue to dominate headlines, our internal focus remains on each individual client’s specific needs. Volatility creates fluctuations, not strategy shifts. Your unique investment plan continues to be an excellent driver of future returns to help achieve your long-term financial goals.

We acknowledge that the current negotiating tactics can be emotionally taxing but continue to remind ourselves and clients that sticking to your plan has proven to be the best long-term strategy.

Sources:

Stetson Ponder is a Financial Planning Analyst in the Atlanta office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.

Key Medicare Changes for 2025: What You Need to Know

11/2024

By Charlotte Disley and Stetson Ponder

As we look ahead to 2025, some important changes are set to shake up Medicare. It’s crucial to understand how these updates might impact your coverage, costs, and access to healthcare. Here’s a straightforward overview of the upcoming changes that all beneficiaries should keep in mind.

Drug Benefits – Part D

$2,000 Out-of-Pocket Cap – One of the biggest changes in 2025 is the introduction of a $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket costs for Part D prescription drugs. Here’s how it breaks down:

Deductible Phase: If your plan has a deductible, you’ll need to spend up to $590 out of pocket before coinsurance kicks in.
Coinsurance Phase: After you hit that $590 threshold, you’ll pay 25% of the cost for covered drugs until your total out-of-pocket expenses reach $2,000.
Catastrophic Phase: Once you hit the $2,000 cap, you won’t have to pay anything else out of pocket for the rest of 2025.

Payment Plans – Starting in 2025, if you’re enrolled in a Medicare drug plan (or a Medicare Advantage plan with drug coverage), you can opt to spread your out-of-pocket drug payments throughout the year through the new Prescription and Copay Payment Schedule Option. There’s no cost to join, but keep in mind this option won’t lower your total drug costs—it just helps manage your payments better!

However, be aware that these changes might lead to some unexpected shifts. For instance, medications could be reclassified to tiers with higher copayments, or some might not be covered at all. It’s important to do your homework—check which prescriptions are included in your plan and get an estimate of their costs for 2025.

Medicare Advantage Plans – Part C

Increased cost of coverage – Medicare Advantage plans might also see higher costs or fewer coverage options due to expected decreases in government funding. Providers will take on more responsibility for prescription drug coverage under the new $2,000 cap, which could lead to changes in available plans.

Scrutiny of prior authorization policies – There is set to be more scrutiny of prior authorization policies by Medicare, which had seen a rise in denials for coverage in recent years. Medicare Advantage plans will need to assess how their prior authorization policies affect different groups and will be required to make this information publicly available on their websites. Responses to prior authorization requests must be given within seven days, down from the previous 14-day requirement.

Unused Benefits – Starting in July 2025, enrollees will receive notifications about any unused benefits in their plans. With an average of 23 supplemental benefits—like hearing aids, fitness programs, and dental services—available in many plans, it’s essential for participants to be aware of what’s offered. Last year, about 30% of Medicare Advantage plans had unused benefits, underscoring the importance of being proactive in managing your options.

Expanding Support in Other Areas

Enhanced Mental Health Services – The availability of licensed mental health professionals who are covered by Medicare is set to expand. This includes Licensed Mental Health Counselors (LMHCs) and Licensed Marriage and Family Therapists (LMFTs), and addiction counselors. This is a significant step toward improving access to mental health care for Medicare beneficiaries.

Family Caregiver Support – Earlier this year, a new program, Guiding an Improved Dementia Experience (GUIDE), was implemented to support patients with Dementia and their unpaid caregivers. GUIDE offers services including a 24/7 support line, a care navigator to help find medical and community-based services, caregiver training, and up to $2,500 per year for at-home, overnight, or adult day care respite services. Typically, patients and their caregivers won’t face copayments. In 2025, the GUIDE program is set to quadruple in size, serving far more of the population experiencing these challenges.

Stay Informed and Prepared

With these major changes on the horizon for Medicare in 2025, it’s vital for beneficiaries to review their prescriptions and healthcare needs to ensure continued coverage. Staying informed and proactive will empower you to navigate these updates and maximize your Medicare benefits.

Reach Out

If you have any specific questions about your situation or enrollment, please reach out to the Cahaba Team directly and we are happy to provide additional resources for Medicare related inquiries.

Sources

Charlotte Disley and Stetson Ponder are Financial Planning Analysts in the Atlanta office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.