Insights

Commentary, insights and analysis from Cahaba Wealth Management

Tag Archives: Certified Financial Planner

Here We Are Again

11/2023

By Brian O’Neill, CFP®

Here we are again. By here, I mean in the midst of a market correction (defined as a more than 10% decline from the recent peak), and by again, I mean one of the now 39 different market corrections we have experienced since the 1950s according to Kiplinger’s¹. To borrow the most recent cliché, market corrections are a feature of the investment system, not a bug. Effectively, I’m stating the obvious, but even the obvious can need some explanation from time to time.

To be clear, we are not cavalier about our clients’ portfolio performance. Rather, we try to remind everyone that successful investing is hard – stocks don’t always go up (and 2022 showed us neither do bonds), but the overall long term trend still remains a very positive one. Let’s take a minute or two to dissect the current environment, and remind ourselves why we invest in the first place.

The S&P 500 reached its 2023 highs on July 31, when it closed up 20.65% (data per YCharts²). Since that yearly high, we have been hit with a litany of news and events that the markets have worked to digest:

Mostly good economic news, with inflation continuing to moderate, and employment actually growing solidly per the September BLS jobs report
Consequently from the economic news, the 10-Year Treasury rate surging from 3.97% on July 31, to today’s yield of 4.84% (down from last week’s 16-year high of 4.98%)
The latest conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing Ukraine/Russia conflagration
Congressional dysfunction in the US House of Representatives with the House leader’s removal/resignation and subsequent meandering by House Republicans to elect a new Speaker

This by no means covers everything, but let’s tackle these bullets with some commentary:

Good economic news really does not need much commentary. While we may still experience a recession in the future, the fact that most economists predicted (this time last year) we would already be in a recession tells us all we need to know about predictions. Adding insult to injury, the data does not remotely back up the predictions. In fact, the tried and true economic indicator of recession, the inverted yield curve (higher yields on short-term securities than long-term securities), may well be flashing signs that a recession is no longer likely. The inversion of the yield curve hit its peak on July 4, 2023, when the 2-Year Treasury yield was 109 basis points (1.09%) higher than the 10-Year, and has now significantly narrowed to 22 basis points³. We can watch, but the curve is “un-inverting” all on its own. Even if we have a recession, it is unlikely to be deep or long.

Fighting inflation does not come without consequences, the 10-Year yield rise has resulted in higher borrowing costs for both consumers and businesses. We cannot ignore this. However, we can accept that we have previously had interest rates near this 5% level many times in the past and the markets have continued higher. Again, using data, Black Rock suggests that rising rates actually help stock prices over time⁴. While we cannot know until some point in the future, historical precedence says that higher rates don’t necessarily lead to negative equity returns.

In terms of geopolitics, nobody likes to see the outcomes for those on the ground. The conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are horrific to witness, and we certainly feel for everyone negatively impacted. However, looking at the data, we have lived through conflicts before and we will weather these too.

Even with all the above, the old euphemism that stocks “climb a wall of worry” exists for a reason. The best take away from the above notes is that the economy in the US remains solid, and that’s the foundation for corporate profits and stock price growth. It has never been a good idea to bet against the markets (see Ben Carlson’s fine article here: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/10/the-crash-callers-wont-save-you/ ). Without re-hashing this article in total, when rolling 10-Year returns are positive 96.9% of the time, it won’t pay to say this time is different. If it were, we would open a casino and take those odds!

I know hearing the news and watching the markets is not easy. Hopefully this note is a simple reminder that we always face challenges when it comes to markets, the economy, and investing. Again, it’s hard! Our job at Cahaba Wealth Management is to help clients navigate difficult times, and build optionality into portfolios so we are never forced to sell something that has performed poorly. This is the foundation of the financial planning process, and our view of long-term cash flow. We cannot predict tomorrow, but we can use reams of data and history to say the next 10 years will likely look very good. In the meantime, turn off CNBC, read a great book, and know that this too shall pass.

Brian O’Neill, CFP® is a financial advisor in the Atlanta office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.

Sources:

Cahaba Wealth Management is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Cahaba Wealth Management is not engaged in the practice of law or accounting. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Content should not be construed as personalized investment advice. The opinions in this materials are for general information, and not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for an individual. Content should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor.

Life Insurance 101

7/2023

By Josh Hegland, CFP®

Life insurance is an important component of a comprehensive financial plan that is often overlooked. While nobody likes to consider their own demise, the idea of a loved one struggling because you didn’t have sufficient coverage is unsettling.

Life insurance can be grouped into two categories: Term and Permanent. Term is the most straightforward and least expensive form of life insurance. It provides coverage to the insured for a specific period of time (usually 10, 20, or 30 years) with a specific premium. Once the period or “term” is over, the policy expires or can be extended for an increased premium. Since term insurance allows a person to only fund the years for which they have a true need for insurance, this type of policy provides a better death benefit for the premiums paid.

Permanent life insurance is designed to provide coverage for the policy holder’s entire life. While lifelong coverage may sound more appealing, these policies are extremely costly and often unnecessary. One example of permanent life insurance is whole life. Whole life insurance policies often carry a 50% minimum front load commission charge that goes directly to the agent. As discussed on our podcast, insurance agents do not have a fiduciary duty, and hence, they are not required to put a client’s interests first when recommending a policy. This can obviously create a conflict of interest, as agents are highly incentivized to sell whole life policies to clients.

In addition to a death benefit, permanent life policies (such as whole life) can offer a savings component. This portion, known as the cash value, typically has a guaranteed return of 2% per year and projected returns of 4-5% over the life of the policy. The word “guarantee” often perks up investor ears. However, keep in mind that historical data¹shows us that a low-cost diversified investment portfolio can provide investors a much higher yield. Over a lifetime, it is highly likely that the investor choosing a well-diversified portfolio will yield more than a life insurance investor. As our core values state, our goal at Cahaba is to always “keep the main thing the main thing”. To that end, we believe insurance should be used for insuring, and investments should be used for investing.

With a few exceptions, we at Cahaba generally prefer the more appropriate term life policies vs. permanent/whole life products when viewing insurance. We acknowledge that there are situations where a permanent policy might be needed, such as for funding an irrevocable trust for estate planning needs or a buy/sell agreement for business owners. However, these situations are an anomaly. Bottom line, it is important you fully understand what you are buying and how the policy is fulfilling your coverage needs.

With these different types of insurance in mind, we are then left to wonder: how much coverage and what type of policy do I need? In truth, there is no one size fits all answer here, as the “right” amount depends on a number of factors. Do your loved ones depend on your income? How much outstanding debt would need to be retired? What amount of Social Security benefits will your family receive at death? These are all questions we ask our clients during our financial plan construction. Based on your specific situation, we are able to evaluate your needs to ensure your loved ones will be taken care of when you’re gone.

As always, do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions!

Note: At Cahaba Wealth Management, we do not sell life insurance policies themselves, but we can make recommendations on coverage and types. We can also help you prepare to meet with an insurance agent.

Josh Hegland, CFP® is an associate advisor in the Atlanta office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.

¹ Source: https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/advisor/csa/analysisTools/portfolioAnalytics/historicalRiskReturn

The Case for International Stocks

4/2023

By Don Keeney, CFA, CFP®

Many of us have heard statistics¹ claiming:

Domestic stocks have outperformed international stocks eight out of the last ten years.
Domestic stocks have outperformed international stocks by a cumulative 20 percentage points over the last three years.
Domestic stocks have outperformed international stocks by a cumulative 50 percentage points over the last five years.

These truths make it seem as though investing in international stocks is a complete waste of time. To help explain why that’s not the case, let’s take a look at some additional data.

The above chart containing data from 1973 to 2022 outlines the following:

Over the last 50 years, domestic stocks have outperformed international stocks only 59% of those years.
International stocks have outperformed domestic stocks 100% of the time when domestic stocks had returns of less than 4% for the year.
International stocks have outperformed domestic stocks 96% of the time when domestic stocks had returns of less than 6% for the year.

Some of what we hear is rooted in Recency Bias. Recency bias is a behavioral pattern in which people incorrectly believe recent events will soon either occur again or persist indefinitely. This bias inhibits an individual’s ability to objectively gauge probabilities, which can lead to poor decisions. While domestic stocks have outperformed international stocks more recently, this has not consistently been the historical norm – nor can we say it will be the case in all future years. We have to separate recent market occurrences from future anticipated market movements.

There is solid evidence that shows the outperformance of one stock market over the other occurs in long cycles (see figure 2). The current cycle is now over 12 years long (including 2023 year-to-date). However, immediately before the current cycle started, international stocks outperformed domestic stocks for roughly eight consecutive years. While the below graphic consists of 5-year rolling returns and not stand-alone calendar years, the perspective remains meaningful. The current cycle is not going to last forever. Investors should acknowledge recency bias and expect the market to NOT stay that way.

When is the next cycle going to start? Who knows! Was international’s outperformance in 2022 the start of a new, long-term outperformance cycle? Who knows! Only one thing remains certain: at some point, the current performance cycle will flip, and international stocks will outperform domestic stocks (at least until the next cycle begins).

With this in mind, Cahaba Wealth Management appropriately constructs your investment portfolio to maximize the potential return for an appropriate amount of risk over the long term. The conversation above about which asset class is going to outperform another asset class actually misses the bigger, more important idea at play: diversification. Diversification is the process of spreading your investments around to multiple different asset classes so that your exposure to any one type is limited. As we tell our clients, diversification is the only “free lunch” in investing!

In other words, an investor can purchase two (or more) risky assets and simultaneously (1) improve the expected rate of return for the combined portfolio AND (2) reduce the portfolio’s overall expected risk. Diversification is a true “two-for-one special”! The only caveat is that the assets cannot act exactly like each other – meaning the assets should not have the same performance and volatility patterns. The more dissimilar the returns are, the larger the “free lunch”.

The takeaway is not to ask if international stocks will ever outperform domestic stocks again (or vice-versa); instead, it is to capitalize on the value of diversification and the resulting higher expected returns, with lower volatility, over your long term investing horizon. The inclusion of temporarily underperforming asset classes will always remain a positive contributor to your portfolio, given the power of diversification!

Don Keeney, CFA, CFP® is a financial advisor in the Nashville office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.

¹Source: ycharts.com