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Market Updates: Tariff Edition

4/2025

Well that was a week…

By now, we assume all Cahaba Wealth clients know that we do not react to short-term movements in the stock market. As we’ve said time and again, market volatility is a constant that allows stocks to generate higher returns than safer investments like cash and bonds. Successful long-term investment is difficult because it requires discipline. Short-term pullbacks are frequently accompanied by narratives that only serve to reinforce the accompanied anxiety. Telling yourself to remain calm and not react during these periods is what separates the opportunities from setbacks.

We were not surprised that President Trump announced tariffs on Wednesday. What was a surprise was the breadth of the sweeping tariffs. This subsequently caused panic and the resulting selloff in stocks. At the close of Friday’s trading, the S&P 500 was down nearly 10% in the last two days, and the S&P 600 (US small company stocks) lost almost 12% in that span. Selling has been indiscriminate and has spread to stocks around the world. We are not ones to react with panic to this kind of movement, but we certainly feel the need to comment on this climate.

As many of our long-term clients know, we have lived through several bizarre scenarios over the past 30 years. Between the 2000-2002 dot.com bubble bursting, the financial crisis of 2008-2009, Covid, and the bond bear market of 2022, it’s been a whirlwind. During these phases, we have used financial planning and cash flow projections to help our clients navigate these various challenges. In most cases, they continue to thrive and achieve financial goals. Even with those specific market downturns, portfolios continue to be positive over that timeframe, and investing remains the best option to outstrip inflation and grow assets. That perspective hasn’t changed with the recent announcements.

Perhaps one positive of this week is the return of bonds to the “safety” trade. US bonds are up roughly 1% this week, over 3.5% year to date, and are providing the cushion that a balanced portfolio should hope for during stock downturns. Diversification works! With the 10-Year Treasury at or below 4%, we may also see a decrease in Federal interest payments and the possibility to refinance recent mortgages.

The stated goal of the tariff strategy is to bring more balance to the global trade landscape and improve US national security. Both goals are logical and appear to be in the best long-term interest of the United States. However, achieving these goals is complicated. Onshoring manufacturing and negotiating reciprocal trade agreements does not happen overnight. In addition, the near-term impact of tariffs is perceived by economists as an immediate tax. The desire to have the United States economy increase the percentage of GDP generated through manufacturing is achievable but will need to be navigated carefully to avoid major economic disruption.

The unpredictable nature of how the tariff strategy was announced is causing the markets the most consternation. One thing that markets hate is uncertainty. Is The President simply using this as a negotiating tactic with each country to get a better deal? How long will these tariffs be in place? Will the tariffs end up either receding or going away altogether? We currently don’t know the answer to any of these questions. What we do know is that once clarity returns, stocks will rejoice.

We hold our convictions that planning and long-term views of cash flow allow clients to weather any storm. Your asset allocation is designed for this very situation. Where possible, we will explore opportunities to use this downturn to our clients’ long-term advantage. If you feel more anxiety and concern about your portfolio than you normally might, it may be a sign that your risk tolerance is not in line with your asset allocation. Please reach out if you would like to discuss in greater detail. In the meantime, we are confident that this pullback will join the previous selloffs as a long-term buying opportunity.

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

Cahaba Wealth Management is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Cahaba Wealth Management is not engaged in the practice of law or accounting. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Content should not be construed as personalized investment advice. The opinions in this materials are for general information, and not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for an individual. Content should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor.

Navigating Tariff Uncertainty: Staying the Course

3/2025

By Stetson Ponder

Recent US tariff actions targeting China, Mexico and Canada have heightened market volatility and have raised many concerns regarding Cahaba Wealth Management’s positioning given this environment moving forward. While these geopolitical developments demand attention and analysis, our investment philosophy remains anchored in long-term outlooks, rather than short-term policy shifts. Here’s why:

The uncertainty regarding implementation of these tariffs leaves analysts and economists unsure what to expect of long-term effects. Even in stable conditions, tariffs are hard to predict because they affect many interconnected aspects of the economy. They can raise prices for consumers, force businesses to change how they get their supplies, and lead other countries to respond with their own tariffs. These effects make it challenging to accurately model the impact of tariffs.

It is hard enough to predict market movement without tariffs, harder still with tariffs being implemented in a slow and methodical approach. Tariffs announced on a Friday and implemented on the following Monday leave investors in a nearly impossible situation. To attempt to predict how to best position any given portfolio in today’s market climate would be metaphorically throwing a dart at a spinning dart board while blindfolded and attempting to hit double twenty.

The motive for these tariff implementations remains complex. The rising speculation is that they are being used as transactional bargaining chips, rather than long term economic strategy. We have already seen Mexico’s 25% tariffs be delayed for a month after President Sheinbaum of Mexico agreed to allocate resources to the continued effort to secure the US’s southern border with its neighbor. Canada’s 25% vehicle import tariff was recently delayed one more month after President Trump spoke with prominent US automakers. What could be viewed as permanent economic shift one day could result in reversal of government policy the next.

This has been the case throughout recent history. Consider:

Research shows that 68% of modern U.S. tariffs are repealed/modified within 24 months, according to Brookings data.
Modern tariffs average 137 days before amendment/repeal.
Since inception, 65% of historical S&P 500 selloffs linked to tariff news are reversed within 3 months as policies shifted (Market Insider, 2025).

Data suggests that we will not see a long-term impact from these tariff negotiations on our domestic markets. While tariff discussions will continue to dominate headlines, our internal focus remains on each individual client’s specific needs. Volatility creates fluctuations, not strategy shifts. Your unique investment plan continues to be an excellent driver of future returns to help achieve your long-term financial goals.

We acknowledge that the current negotiating tactics can be emotionally taxing but continue to remind ourselves and clients that sticking to your plan has proven to be the best long-term strategy.

Sources:

Stetson Ponder is a Financial Planning Analyst in the Atlanta office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.

Year-End Tax Planning Items: What You Need to Know

12/2024

By Stetson Ponder

As we come to the end of 2024, many families and individuals find themselves reflecting on the year that was. A portion of this reflection certainly involves their financial health and ways to improve for the upcoming year. At Cahaba Wealth, here is an overview of tax-planning strategies that we use to ensure our clients are as tax-efficient as possible.

Tax Loss Harvesting

In taxable accounts, taking a capital loss can be a strategic way to offset other capital gains that may have occurred over the year.
Selling off long-term investments at a loss and reinvesting them in similar positions allows you to “harvest” the negative return while maintaining the integrity of the portfolio.
In general, we look for these opportunities during periods of market volatility.
We also look for areas where capital gains may be harvested for those in the 0% capital gains tax bracket (those in lower-income filings).

Required Minimum Distributions

Those who turn 73 or older this year must take required minimum distributions (RMDs) from their IRA accounts by April 1, 2025.
Donating to qualified charities by way of Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) for those 70 ½ years or older is a way to lower your taxable income and maximize your charitable income.
At Cahaba Wealth, we work individually with our clients to strategize the best way to disperse each respective account’s RMD.

Roth Conversions

With a Roth IRA, contributions are made with after-tax dollars and earnings can grow tax-free. In addition, Roth IRAs do not have RMDs associated with them, allowing your investments a longer time horizon.
A Roth conversion involves transferring retirement assets from a traditional IRA, SEP IRA, or 401(k) plan into a Roth IRA.
Roth accounts can be beneficial if you expect to be in a higher tax bracket in retirement or if you want to reduce your taxable income in retirement.
Roth Conversions should be considered carefully, as these conversions are irreversible and have significant tax implications.
If you have questions about your specific situation and whether a Roth conversion may be for you, Cahaba Wealth would be more than happy to help you think through this process.

Retirement Account Contributions

Maximizing your contributions to tax-advantaged retirement accounts lowers your taxable income for the year.
Contribution limits to IRAs for those under 50 is $7,000 this year and an additional $1,000 for those over 50. This limit includes contributions to both a traditional and a Roth IRA.
Contribution limits to 401(k) plans are capped at $23,000 this year for those under 50. “Catch-up” contributions of up to $7,500 are available to those over 50.
The contribution limit to SIMPLE IRA plans is $16,000, with an additional $3,500 for those 50 and older.
Contributions that can be deducted from SEP IRA plans are limited to either 25% of the employee’s pay or $69,000, whichever is less.

Charitable Giving

Donations to qualified 501(c)(3) organizations can be deducted on a tax return.
Deciding on a donation amount and charity by year-end enables you to make the contribution and receive the associated tax benefits in the same year.
Consider donating appreciated securities to avoid capital gains on highly appreciated assets.

Stay Informed and Prepared

Effective end-of-year tax preparation involves multiple facets, and there is no “one size fits all” answer to any tax situation. Your unique financial situation, goals, and life stage will predicate which strategies are best for you.

Reach Out

At Cahaba, our strategy aims to wholly encompass everything that makes you and your family unique when creating a tailored financial plan. If any of these topics spark your interest or you generally would like more financial guidance, please contact our team.

Sources

Stetson Ponder is a Financial Planning Analyst in the Atlanta office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.