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Staying the Course: Why We Aren’t Afraid of the Economy

6/2024

By Crawford Asman

While we acknowledge the imperfections of surveys and how they are used, a recent Harris Poll taken exclusively for the Guardian revealed wide-spread pessimism regarding the economy. The results caught our attention not for the accuracy of the results but for how it demonstrates the power of a concentrated narrative on public opinion. The results showed that nearly 3/5 Americans believe the US is in the midst of an economic recession. The poll emphasized many misnomers about the economy, with the most notable being:

49% believe that unemployment is sitting at a 50-year high, however, the current rate has been below 4% since February of 2022.
49% believe that the S&P 500 is down for the year, though the index saw a 26% total return in 2023 and nearly 12% YTD.
55% believe the economy is shrinking and 56% believe the US is in the midst of a recession – we’ve now had 6 consecutive quarters of GDP growth.

Clearly, financial journalism has a role in creating this sentiment; after all, it’s difficult to think the economy is doing well while being bombarded by click-bait titles citing whatever global issue as the cause for the down markets that day. These headlines are meant to draw you in with borderline “fear-mongering” tactics, and it can lead to a great deal of confusion to the individual investor. However, the real “issue” here is not the election, nor is it the media. Rather, it’s us simply being human.

Humans are inherently very emotional, and there is especially no exception to that rule when it comes to the broader economy and markets. It’s normal to feel uncertain. That’s why, at Cahaba, it’s our job to provide our clients with a personalized financial plan that will give them a sense of security that they can accomplish their long-term goals. We don’t focus on the “apocalypse du jour”. Rather, we focus on the plan we originally agreed to, and stand by it. While it may not seem logical at first, long-term investors are more successful when they stick to their investment plan. In both bull and bear markets, the key is staying the course.

The chart above showcases the total return (including dividend reinvestment) of a $1,000 initial investment into the S&P 500 in 1926. You’ll notice that despite the countless recessionary periods and global crises, simply sticking to the long-term plan and allowing the investment to compound is incredibly powerful.

At this point, you may be asking yourself why you need an advisor in the first place if “staying the course” is all it takes to be successful. Well, the true benefit of an advisor is not how good they are at timing the market or their supposed “superior” abilities to pick undervalued stocks. It’s the guardrails they enact to prevent their clients from engaging in poor decisions that can significantly alter their financial futures.

We at Cahaba, like most people, are not capable of knowing what will happen later this year in the markets, or even later today! What we do know, however, is how to control the controllables. In essence, no matter what is going on in the world, it will not dictate your financial plan – your plan’s objectives and goals will always be the focus. I’ll conclude with one final thought from the well-respected behavioral finance expert, Daniel Crosby:

“Maybe we as a human race aren’t very well suited to help ourselves and listen to our own best advice. But we do seem equipped to help each other when times get tough – and that’s worth a whole lot.”

Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden#:~:text=Nearly%20three%20in%20five%20Americans,as%20election%20day%20draws%20closer.
https://www.nickmurraynewsletters.com/members/login.cfm?hpage=June%2D2024%2Ecfm&loggedout=y
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/you-need-financial-advisor-reason-think-daniel-crosby-ph-d-/

Crawford Asman is a Financial Planning Analyst in the Atlanta office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.

Cahaba Wealth Management is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Cahaba Wealth Management is not engaged in the practice of law or accounting. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Content should not be construed as personalized investment advice. The opinions in this materials are for general information, and not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for an individual. Content should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor.

Open Enrollment “Checklist”

10/2023

By Charlotte Disley

As we approach year-end, benefit enrollment is at the top of many of our “to-do” lists. It is likely that employers have started sending reminders to enroll in benefits for 2024, and we wanted to provide a “checklist” for some things to be on the lookout for to ensure you and your family are appropriately covered going into a new plan year.

Take note of whether or not you are required to take action during open enrollment

It is not uncommon for current benefit elections to roll over, however, companies often reevaluate their benefit options each year and there is a possibility that insurance carriers and/or plans could change. When this is the case, it is likely that you will need to actively elect the new plans being offered.

Compare important plan information

For your healthcare benefits, take a look at deductibles (costs that you are responsible for before insurance kicks in), co-pays/coinsurance (the amount you pay versus the insurance carrier) and out of pocket maximums (the maximum amount you will pay in a given plan year). If your plan is changing, it is also a good idea to check that your current providers are “in-network” with your new insurance carrier – staying in network often helps to reduce your cost for services!

Check your eligibility for certain savings or spending accounts, such as a Health Savings Account (HSA) or Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA) for healthcare and/or daycare

Be sure to understand how these accounts work, including any contribution limits and their tax benefits. Even if your elections do rollover from last year, contribution limits for HSAs have increased for 2024, so you may no longer “max out” this benefit and therefore need to take action.

Evaluate if your current coverage levels for different benefits still make sense

Open enrollment is a great opportunity to reassess if your current benefits remain suitable, or fill any gaps where other coverage might be lacking. This not only applies to healthcare plan elections; it is also pertinent to coverage such as life insurance, long term disability, and any other supplemental benefits your company may offer. For certain benefits, such as disability pay or life insurance, your company may provide a set level of coverage that is employer paid. However, supplemental coverage above and beyond this could work out to be more or less expensive in the marketplace. This is an area we often discuss with clients to ensure they are appropriately covered for their needs, in the most cost effective manner.

Compare your current coverage to what is being offered next year

Even if providers and benefits are staying the same, insurance costs typically rise year over year. Keep an eye out for increased cost per paycheck so you aren’t caught by surprise in January when your take home pay has changed.

Make sure you complete all the steps for your elections and print a confirmation statement for your records.

Outside of open enrollment periods, there are only certain situations where benefit elections can be changed. This might include starting a new job at a different company, or experiencing a life event such as getting married or having a baby. This is why it is so important to pay attention during the open enrollment period. If you think you made a mistake or missed the deadline to submit your enrollment, reach out to the designated contact within your company (likely the HR or Benefits teams) to see if there is anything that can be done to get this corrected.

Benefits are of great importance when it comes to our financial world, and not being properly covered can become burdensome in the case of having to cover large unexpected healthcare costs, or not having the appropriate life/disability insurance in place. Be sure to take note of any deadlines for enrollment, and try not to wait until the last minute. As always, we are available to answer questions you may have!

Charlotte Disley is a financial planning analyst in the Atlanta office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.

Life Insurance 101

7/2023

By Josh Hegland, CFP®

Life insurance is an important component of a comprehensive financial plan that is often overlooked. While nobody likes to consider their own demise, the idea of a loved one struggling because you didn’t have sufficient coverage is unsettling.

Life insurance can be grouped into two categories: Term and Permanent. Term is the most straightforward and least expensive form of life insurance. It provides coverage to the insured for a specific period of time (usually 10, 20, or 30 years) with a specific premium. Once the period or “term” is over, the policy expires or can be extended for an increased premium. Since term insurance allows a person to only fund the years for which they have a true need for insurance, this type of policy provides a better death benefit for the premiums paid.

Permanent life insurance is designed to provide coverage for the policy holder’s entire life. While lifelong coverage may sound more appealing, these policies are extremely costly and often unnecessary. One example of permanent life insurance is whole life. Whole life insurance policies often carry a 50% minimum front load commission charge that goes directly to the agent. As discussed on our podcast, insurance agents do not have a fiduciary duty, and hence, they are not required to put a client’s interests first when recommending a policy. This can obviously create a conflict of interest, as agents are highly incentivized to sell whole life policies to clients.

In addition to a death benefit, permanent life policies (such as whole life) can offer a savings component. This portion, known as the cash value, typically has a guaranteed return of 2% per year and projected returns of 4-5% over the life of the policy. The word “guarantee” often perks up investor ears. However, keep in mind that historical data¹shows us that a low-cost diversified investment portfolio can provide investors a much higher yield. Over a lifetime, it is highly likely that the investor choosing a well-diversified portfolio will yield more than a life insurance investor. As our core values state, our goal at Cahaba is to always “keep the main thing the main thing”. To that end, we believe insurance should be used for insuring, and investments should be used for investing.

With a few exceptions, we at Cahaba generally prefer the more appropriate term life policies vs. permanent/whole life products when viewing insurance. We acknowledge that there are situations where a permanent policy might be needed, such as for funding an irrevocable trust for estate planning needs or a buy/sell agreement for business owners. However, these situations are an anomaly. Bottom line, it is important you fully understand what you are buying and how the policy is fulfilling your coverage needs.

With these different types of insurance in mind, we are then left to wonder: how much coverage and what type of policy do I need? In truth, there is no one size fits all answer here, as the “right” amount depends on a number of factors. Do your loved ones depend on your income? How much outstanding debt would need to be retired? What amount of Social Security benefits will your family receive at death? These are all questions we ask our clients during our financial plan construction. Based on your specific situation, we are able to evaluate your needs to ensure your loved ones will be taken care of when you’re gone.

As always, do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions!

Note: At Cahaba Wealth Management, we do not sell life insurance policies themselves, but we can make recommendations on coverage and types. We can also help you prepare to meet with an insurance agent.

Josh Hegland, CFP® is an associate advisor in the Atlanta office of Cahaba Wealth Management, www.cahabawealth.com.

¹ Source: https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/advisor/csa/analysisTools/portfolioAnalytics/historicalRiskReturn